The September Surge refers to a period when employers and recruiters do more hiring as Q4 ends. Last fall, nearly 300,000 jobs were added to the U.S. labor force, almost doubling economists’ predictions.
“It’s a term that’s used to define the uptick in new job openings that appear between Labor Day through Halloween or November 1,” personal finance expert Cinneah El-Amin told ESSENCE in an August 2023 interview. She says that September Surge happens for a number of reasons. “New fiscal years begin in some industries around this time. There’s a renewed interest in closing out as companies think towards Q4—there might be headcount that they need to firm up for their budgets which creates surge of opportunities. Lastly, recruiters might also have goals they haven’t met for their annual performance that the end of summer allows them to tackle. There are a couple of things that happen on a macro and micro level that really influence the September surge. But in general, job seekers can expect to see above average job openings from Labor Day through Halloween.”
Conversely, some are saying the September Surge will be offset by the January Purge.
“We have a September surge—we’re going to have a January purge…I hate to be the one to say it, but I’m just going to be honest with you,” TikTok user Kyahh Abdul said in a September 2023 video. “Everybody completely forgot what happened at the start of this year. There were more layoffs in January than any other month.”
Abdul is referring to the more than 80,000 employees that lost their jobs last year in January alone. Now, it looks like the same may happen in 2024. For instance, it was recently reported that Xerox announced plans to cut 15 percent of its staff with plans for the layoffs deploy in the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, a recent Resume Builder report shared that nearly four in 10 companies reported they are likely to have layoffs in 2024, with more than half of companies also stating they will put hiring freezes in place. Abdul goes on to explain that the layoffs are a result of companies overshooting their budgets from the prior year.
“There are multiple ways for companies to get creative in finishing out their budgets that don’t involve hiring full time employees in a stable economy,” Abdul said in the video. “I would agree that hiring in September makes sense and a lot of companies normally do that. But the economy isn’t great right now. It’s not horrible, but it’s also not great. Interest rates are still very high.”
Scary times indeed, but HR consultant Lorna Bates says there are ways to safeguard yourself.
“There are warning signs that the January Purge is going to hit your place of employment because they show up way before January,” Bates tells ESSENCE. “It usually even happens before September. I would say look at the trend in hiring in your company. If they’re posting positions, pay attention to whether they are actually hiring for those positions that they’ve posted. That is a major warning sign. If a position is posted more than 90 days, be very concerned. Why aren’t they able to fill the position? If you work in that department or within the organization, is it because finances are not going well? If they’re publicly traded, what are the stock sales? Are stock prices going down? Is there a change in senior leadership? Look at that. Look at your last increase that you received. Was it a cost of living increase of 2%, or did you get a 7% increase or did you not get any increase at all? When open enrollment comes around for health insurance, what has changed? Is the deductible higher that you have to pay for? Those are all telltale signs that the company is tightening its belt financially and is an indicator that things are not the way they used to be.”
If any of these factors apply to you, Bates said there’s hope.
“Remember, you are in control,” she says. “You may be the employee, but you are in control of your destiny. You can make changes. You can get professional development. You can take a free class online at many top ten universities. You can freshen up your resume. You can reconnect with your network to let them know you’re looking for new opportunities. You are in control.”